Lucy Dacus’ Best Guess lands somewhere between a love song and an existential shrug.
It’s the kind of track that feels tailor-made for people who overthink relationships but love hard anyway.
With its stripped-back instrumentation and intimate lyrics, Best Guess marks a departure from Dacus’ heavier, more narrative-driven work—leaving some fans enchanted and others wishing for the bite of Historian or the raw nostalgia of Home Video.
Best Guess by Lucy Dacus: A Snapshot of Tenderness
Described as an “anthem of queer tenderness,” Best Guess is the latest preview of Dacus’ upcoming album, Forever Is a Feeling.
The track leans into uncertainty, with lyrics like “You are my best guess at the future,” capturing the fragile optimism of love in real time. The song doesn’t declare forever—it merely hopes for it.
Dacus first debuted Best Guess live on October 8, 2024, at Julien Baker’s show at Brooklyn Steel in Brooklyn, New York.
Lucy’s setlist for Tonight including a new song via @HUMANTo0 pic.twitter.com/LgpQblYTnS
— boygenius source (@boygeniussource) October 9, 2024
Shortly after, on January 7, 2025, she confirmed the track title and teased a snippet on TikTok.
The video doubled as a casting call announcement for the music video, inviting fans to post their own interpretations using the song’s audio.
Lucy Dacus Best Guess Song Meaning: A Gamble on Love
The song paints love as both a bet and a mystery. The chorus—“If I were a gambling man, and I am / You’d be my best bet”—frames commitment as a calculated risk, a romantic leap without a safety net.
It’s a lyrical theme that fits snugly within Dacus’ catalogue, where emotions are never simple and relationships are often laced with apprehension.
Dacus delivers the lines with a gentle sincerity, making Best Guess feel like an intimate conversation rather than a grand declaration.
The bridge, with its soft admission—“You were looking for saints, but you only found people”—suggests that love thrives in imperfection.
Bartees Strange, who co-produced the track and played on multiple songs on the album, revealed that Best Guess was one of the last songs written for Forever Is a Feeling.
He shared that Dacus had been humming the melody throughout their studio sessions, and when the opportunity arose, they created the track with the rest of the album’s sonic themes in mind.
A Calvin Klein Aesthetic Meets Hot Mascs
Directed by Dacus, the Best Guess video channels ’90s Calvin Klein ads with a playful spin.
Cameos from Cara Delevingne, Towa Bird, and MUNA’s Naomi McPherson add to its charm as the video playfully subverts classic masculinity tropes while keeping things lighthearted.
Dacus even cast a group of self-described “hot mascs” via an open call on TikTok, proving that the indie world’s casting choices can be just as fun as the pop sphere’s.
@lucydacus casting call for music video, help me out, please send to the hot mascs in your life
♬ Best Guess – lucy dacus
Lucy Dacus Best Guess: What’s the Verdict?
Best Guess has sparked mixed reactions. Some praise its simplicity and sincerity, while others find it lacking the sharpness of Historian or Home Video.
One thing is certain: Best Guess isn’t trying to be the next Night Shift or Thumbs.
Instead, it’s a moment of vulnerability, wrapped in warm guitar tones and Dacus’ ever-reliable sincerity.
Where Does “Best Guess” Fit in Dacus’ Evolution?
Dacus’ past work often carried an autobiographical weight, but Best Guess feels lighter.
Some listeners see this as a step forward, an artist shedding her past melancholia for something more present.
Others view it as a dilution of her signature storytelling. But whether you love it or wish it had more lyrical grit, Best Guess undeniably captures a feeling—one that’s as fragile as it is universal.
Beyond her solo career, Dacus is also part of the critically acclaimed band Boygenius, alongside fellow singer-songwriters Phoebe Bridgers and Julien Baker.
The trio’s influence can be felt throughout her evolving sound, and fans of their work will likely find a similar emotional resonance in Best Guess.
With Forever Is a Feeling on the horizon, Best Guess offers a window into Dacus’ current headspace: cautious, hopeful, and still finding beauty in uncertainty.
Maybe that’s the best guess any of us have when it comes to love.
Lucy Dacus Best Guess Lyrics
Verse 1
Clasping your necklace
Zipping your dress
Hands on your waist
Kissing your neck
I love your body
I love your mind
They will change
So will mine
But you are
Chorus
My best guess
At the future
You are my best guess
If I were a gambling man, and I am
You’d be my best bet
Verse 2
Tracing your tan lines
Making you mine
If this doesn’t work out
I would lose my mind
And after a while
I will be fine
But I don’t wanna be fine
I want you, you, you are
Chorus
My best guess at the future
You are my best guess
If I were a gambling man, and I am
You’d bе my best bet
Bridge
Herе is the church
Here is the steeple
You were looking for saints
But you only found people
Ain’t that just the way it goes
I watched you fall from grace
You were graceful
After all, it’s a small world
You may not be an angel
But you are my girl
You are my pack a day
You are my favorite place
You were my best friend before you were
Chorus
My best guess at the future
You are my best guess
If I were a gambling man, and I am
You’d be my best bet
You are my best guess at the future
You are my best guess
If I were a gambling man, and I am
You’d be my best bet